Thursday, 28 October 2010

A Rebirth !

So, all on my own, I start again and will post from the beginning of November.

Tuesday, 23 March 2010

Day 30 - The Finale

My target had been to get to £600. I should have achieved this on my last day. I had placed a bet on Over 2.5 goals in the Zenit v Moscow game on televised on ESPN on Sunday morning but I had to go out so I missed the kickoff. On my return I found I was in profit , about £5, but instead of taking it, I stayed in and ended up losing. The Man Utd game was an easy win but the Chelsea game disappointed. Lots of goal scoring chances but only the two actually scored.

Today I lost my discipline and tried too hard to crawl over the £600 barrier. Had I settled for small profits, I would have achieved this.

So, my blog is at an end. I have been inhibited in placing some bets but might have gained overall by doing fewer frivolous bets during the period.

My total profit was £200.50.

Thanks for your patience.

Sunday, 21 March 2010

Day 29 - Inquest and Plan

I tried to trade the dogs yesterday and failed miserably. The Wales v Italy game was on TV and I punted £30 on over 46.5 points and managed to fall short by just a few. In the Midlands Grand National I narrowed my selections down to two but put £10 on the wrong one ! Those were the bad points of the day but everything else went well. I managed to trade out of the Over 2.5 markets just at the right time in most of the games. I hadn't realised that there had been an early goal in the Spanish game until after about 18 minutes and could have screwed a few more pounds profit if I hadn't been watching a cowboy film on TV. Nevertheless, profit in all football matches and my bank is at its highest since I started my blog.

Russian football on ESPN at 11.00 am today and price for Over 2.5 goals is high so I've had a go at it. I can't fail to be in profit now and can afford to be a little adventurous. It would be nice to crawl over the £600 barrier today and I'll do my best.

Saturday, 20 March 2010

Day 28 - Inquest and Plan

A pleasant Cheltenham. I had been tipping the winner of the Gold Cup since Christmas and it was no surprise to me that Imperial Commander won and Kauto Star would fall. I love Cheltenham and don't care if I win or lose. Can't be bothered to work it out precisely but I ended up about evens and that's more than most would have done this year.

I took a loss of about £16 on the Bundesliga game last night in a game which was totally boring. Thereis something radically wrong with German people who can whirl scarves around their heads for ninety minutes watching this garbage.

This is my penultimate day in the life of my blog and I'm happy that I am going to have some sort of bank left on Monday morning.

I tried trading on the dogs this morning but it is simply not for me. I managed to lose over £7 on one race. Given the average profit per race seems to be about 14p, I don't think have enough time left to me on this planet to attempt to recover losses by continuing to trade them

I placed £40 on the Hearts v Hibs game @ 2.6and jumped out after the second goal giving me a profit of about £36 so a good start.

I am in the Over 2.5 market in the Villa v Wolves game and after 9 minutes no goals but good game.

Three international rugby games one after the other. Arsenal v West Ham, Real Madrid v Sporting Gijon and Palermo v Inter all look to be sporting bets for Over 2.5 and I'll probably do them too.

I am playing with Mr Betfair's money now and and am quite pleased with how things have gone so far.

Friday, 19 March 2010

Day27 - Inquest and Plan

I was quite happy with my Cheltenham meeting yesterday although I made a loss. Cheltenham is to be enjoyed winning or losing. I am delighted to be able to enter the final day with my bank intact.

Encouraged by other members of Geek's Forum I had a go at trading greyhounds but was greedy and placed bets which were far too high in two races and ended up losing. My mistakes have been pointed out to me by Mr ScumbagTrader and I'll definitely try again now I know where I went wrong yesterday.

Nobody could have failed to win in the Over 2.5 goals market yesterday as the goals flew in everywhere. I greened after the first goal in every game. I would have won far more if I'd allowed all the bets to run but that's the way it goes. If they had all ended up 1 - 0 I would be sick.

My cheeky bet was on Wolfsburg scoring the first goal in extra time. I did it because they had home advantage. Very good reason, very sensible, but why did they wait unti the last minute of the second period to score ?

I'll be doing my usual Heinz bet today in the hope of hitting the jackpot and trading the individual horses in running.
My selections are :

Westlin' Winds
European Dream
The Betchworth Kid
Trust Fund
Clova Island
Beggars Cap

The seventh race is the Gold Cup and I will just do a single bet on Imperial Commander.

I might do the Overs in the televised Bundesliga game tonight, FC Koln v Munchengladbach, but I have no strong views and may sit out waiting for better football and rugby prospects over the weekend.

Thursday, 18 March 2010

Day 26 Inquest and Plan

I had one winner at Cheltenham yesterday, Spirit River, but, unfortunately, because of a poor camera angle, head on, as the horses went down the hill, I closed the bet too soon. That cost me about £100 in extra winnings.

The football went according to plan and I greened early in both being happy to have profits in all events.

I will be doing my Heinz bet this afternoon, and this time, if they all win, my profit will only be £350,000.

My selections are :

China Rock
Price Erik
Tranquil Sea
Tidal Bay
Watch My Back

The two Europa League games look as though they might have goals in them, particularly the Liverpool game and it is very likely that Over 2.5 markets will be the answer again.

I provide my profit/loss account and last part of my statement for yesterday.

Wednesday, 17 March 2010

Day25 - Inquest and Plan

My selections for Cheltenham ran reasonably well. Exmoor Ranger fell and he was my nap. Amber Brook finished fourth at a big price but I didn't back him for a place. I lost about £40 on racing, and for a losing day at cheltenham, that was disciplined by my usual standards.

My biggest disappointment was the low scoring in the Chelsea v Inter Milan game. I was lucky t be able to save some of my stake.

I will be doing my daily Heinz at Cheltenham and my selections are

Summit Meeting
Diamond Harry
Kalahari King
Spirit River
Kudu Country

Once more, a £1,000,000 for six winners. Will back them individually and trade in running if possible.

My selection for the last race is Tavern Times.

I will almost certainly back Over 2.5 goals in tonights Barcelona V Stuttgart game.

Tuesday, 16 March 2010

Day 24 - Cheltenham

Liverpool won comfortably last night and my Over 2.5 goals market was a winner. I haven't provided a statement today as too little to go on it and not worth bothering with.

Cheltenham is my favourite sporting occasion of the year. I allow myself the indulgence of gambling. I have done a small stake Heinz bet covering the first day's racing. Only 25p per unit stake for a total of £14.25 but in the unlikely event of getting six winners , I will win a Million pounds.

My selections are :

Dan Breen
Sports Line
Exmoor Ranger
Khyber Kim
Another Jewel
Amber Brook.

I have tiny stake of £4 on my first selection and will continue with small stakes until I have a winner, in which case I will cut loose and place much bigger bets.

I am more concerned about the two Champions League games tonight. Also, having pushed my way over the £500 mark, I am reluctant to risk too much now. I only have six more days left in the life of my blog and do not want to end up losing if I can avoid it.

I will trade all my selections in running. Absolutely no pre-race trading !

I think there will be goals in both Euro games tonight. Inter Milan cannot afford to sit back and defend at Chelsea as Chelsea have an away goal. I will be doing both games. Current odds for both are around about Evens.

Monday, 15 March 2010

Day 23 Plan for Today

This is my second post today, the earlier one dated Monday 15/3/10 was a summary of yesterday's bets.

Today's plan is to place a bet in the Over 2.5 market in the Liverpool v Portsmouth game and to to study form for Cheltenham.

I normally have all my Cheltenham bets sorted out by now and would know almost every bet I would be doing in the Festival. This year is different because I have never faced a Cheltenham meeting where there seem to be so many "good things". I am hoping that they will all come unstuck and that there will be total carnage with the bookmakers cleaning up. My reason for this is that I will be betting outsiders on almost every event.

My only certain bet is to back Imperial Commander in the Gold Cup. Denman will lead the field and "blow up". Kauto Star and Imperial Commander will be close to each other at the last fence, Kauto Star will lose all chance as he makes a mess of jumping, and Imperial Commander will win by six lengths easing up.

I may be forced to Dutch Irish outsiders in some races as none of them has come here just for the fun of it and all are dangerous.

So, Imperial Commander for the big one, and the Irish to have at least eight winners.

Day 22 Inquest

Traded in Over 2.5 goal markets as usual. The Barcelona game was one which always seemed to have goals in it and I stayed in to the death. I also chased it by backing it during the match as well. With the opposition down to ten men anything was possible and the best player in world football, Lionel Messi, scored three brilliant goals.

For those thinking that my entry for profit/loss in the Real Madrid game is a little strange, I allowed my profit from the first goal to run down in the hope of a second and greened to recover my stake. So, a bet for nothing. Final score was well over three goals but I'd been watching football for eight hours and needed to check out.

At last, for a moment at least, my account balance has passed the £500 mark. I cannot begin to tell you how pressurised I feel by trying to trade so publicly. There have been many times when my gut feeling was to do a bet but I didn't because I didn't want to make a fool of myself here. To that extent the blog has cost me money. On the other hand, my frivolous bets have been far fewer and cost me only about £2o in all. So, on balance, my discipline has improved.

I attach my overall p/l account for yesterday and the last few entries on my statement.

Saturday, 13 March 2010

Days 20 and 21

I haven't had enough time to do my blog during the last couple of days and I am trying to catch up. The profit and loss account and last page of statement are shown for these days. The highlights are :
(i) I was disturbed when trading horse pre-race yesterday afternoon. My new puppy started messing around and was pulling papers of a coffee table and then he began to pull cushions of chairs. I had layed two bets of £40. Seeing that I had to jump out quickly, I placed two more bets of £40 to close my position. After I finished sorting Snowy out, I returned to my screen to discover that the last two bets I had placed were lay bets not back bets. I now had a liability of £280 and a loss of nearly £30. I hedged out just in time before the off.
I continued trading at for the next for races I recovered about £15. Then, my wife came to show my a new jacket she had bought to go to a presentation at the Thai Embassy in London next Wednesday and I screwed up again. There will be not more pre-race trading until I can guarantee no interruptions.

(ii) I backed Over 2.5 goals in the Napoli v Fiorentina game and managed to make a loss of Over £50 at half time. I then layed £200 on the Under 1.5 market and, when a goal was scored immediately after half time, I made a profit of Over £90.

That's pretty much it.

Thursday, 11 March 2010

Day 19 Conclusion

I felt the need to cut loose today and increase my stakes. I felt happy that if I backed Over 2.5 goals in each of the UK televised games that I would not lose.
The first three games kicked off at the same time. I had expected Liverpool to fail to win and it was frustrating to see my Over 2.5 money go down the drain.

Sporting Lisbon lost a man early in the game and it seemed certain that Atletico Madrid would score goals. They managed to screw up for me. Fortunately Hamburg went to plan.

My original bet was to do Overs in the Juventus game and had done it earlier today. In view of my overall loss in the earlier games I decided I would double my stake on it. Two early goals were scored and I greened. I could have made another £32 if I had stayed in because Fulham scored the third. Nevertheless, having risked £ 200 and to find myself in profit. albeit small, it would have been daft to stay in and risk over £140 to win an extra £32.

A little reckless today but this is because I am running out of time now. I only have two weekends football and Cheltenham races before this blog closes so I must press on.

I have set my own personal target for my bank at the end and am either going to achieve it or blow it. I'll still try to be sensible. I have attached a profit and loss account and the last part of my statement.

Day 19 Inquest and Plan.

Yesterday was a reasonably sensible day. I did Over 2.5 goals in both Champions League games and greened immediately after the first goal was scored in each. I intended re-entering the markets at half time. In view of the urgent need of the Real Madrid team, I entered Overs in that game. Wrong choice. I allowed myself a period for goals to be scored by allowing my profit to dwindle to almost zero and then greened. My frivolous correct score failed to pay off this time. So, a small profit on the day.

Two games tonight are Lille v Liverpool, Juventus v Fulham. I can easily see Liverpool losing this one but the odds are much too high to consider laying them. I think that they will probably lose 2 - 0 ( 18 ).

I have already backed Over 2.5 goals in the Juventus game. Fulham have done very well since Christmas but I think that they will be outclassed. I am considering bookings odds in this game too ( 1.78 ) for 9 points and over.

Wednesday, 10 March 2010

Day 18 Inquest and Plan

Yesterday was very easy. Loads of goals in both Champions League ties and couldn't fail to make money. I did Over 2.5 goals in both games and traded out far too early in the Fiorentina game, but wasn't watching it and recovered my stake when I had the chance. I greened in the Arsenal game at 2 - 0 and the game "died" a little. Then, before half time Arsenal became very dominant and I thought that they would go on to score more goals. Instead of re-entering the Over 2.5 market or the Over 3.5 market, I decided that it was likely that Arsenal would score two more goals in the second half so I entered the correct score market and backed "Any Unquoted" price as this was good value. I recovered the "winnings" I had lost by greening the Over 2,5 market too soon and made me feel a little bit chuffed because, even if I say it myself, It was a clever thing to do.

No horses today as I have discovered, if I get out of my chair, that there is a place called "outside" and I have been walking Benny and Snowy there in lovely sunshine.

The Over 2.5 market in the Real Madrid Market is at a low price at 1.6. I have already put £40 on it and am very tempted to double this. Real Madrid have to score two goals to win the tie in 90 minutes. A goal by Lyons would, I think, make three or more goals a certainty.

I still don't think that Man Utd are anywhere near being a top team. Having seen AC Milan play many times this year, I am far from convinced that United will get through this tie. I had considered laying Man Utd but 1.78 is way too high. The Over 2.5 market is not generous at 1.88.

If I am right, and Utd fail to progress, it will be because Milan have won by two clear goals, 0 - 2 being the most likely score if they should achieve this. Current odds are 34. I've stuck £4 on it for an interest and if Milan score first, I'll win a couple of quid. Done this trick twice in the last couple of weeks, and it's a fun thing to do.

If I don't convince myself to put £40 on Over 2.5 in the Man Utd game, I might double up on the Real Madrid game.

Tuesday, 9 March 2010

Day 17 Inquest and Plan

Last night's Liverpool game was amusing. I thought that Wigan would not make life easy for them and did a small bet, Wigan to win 3 - 0. Greened after the first goal, very pleasant. I also backed Over 2.5 goals. I was able to recover 25% of my stake at 82 minutes and this is most unusual. It seems that the whole world was hanging on for Liverpool to score goals. I hate Liverpool and am quite happy to lose about £25 when they lose.

Since yesterday I have amused myself by trading greyhounds and horses. Very small pickings to be had from dogs , I'm afraid. Today, I traded horses for the first time in ages and did OK considering all the interruptions I had to put up with. This form of trading should be a solitary activity as it is very easy to lose large amounts of money very quickly if one is disturbed and loses concentration.

I attach a statement up to the end of the Liverpool game last night and a trading profit/loss account for today's latest bets.

Tonight I have had a smallish punt on Over 2.5 in the Fiorentina v Bayern Munich game. Both European ties tonight are complicated by virtue of away goals having been scored in the first legs. So, I'll decide nearer kickoff if I am going to back again.

Monday, 8 March 2010

Day 16 - Inquest and Plan

I cut loose yesterday and did the over 2.5 goal markets in many games, only one of which actually had more than 2.5 goals. That game was the Everton v Hull game. It wasn't on TV and as soon as the second goal was scored I greened. Final score was something like 5 - 1 but I couldn't see it for myself and was right to trade out when I did.

Remarkably, I ended up making only a tiny loss on the day, this despite having a frivolous punt of over £15 at big odds in the Zaragoza game correct score of 0 - 3. I had hoped that Forlan, or somebody, would have scored to give Atletico the lead and, then would have greened with a profit in the order of £50.

Although I didn't make any money yesterday, I regard it as being the best day's trading I have done since I started this blog. I had no luck in the sense of having great numbers of goals scored but managed to stake a lot of money and reduce potential losses. So, effectively, bets for hardly any cost. The API was still very erratic and I had to have many attempts at closing trades on occasion which cost me some money too.

I find myself still in profit overall, albeit tiny, but I have regained my confidence. If I can make a small profit on a bad day, I am going to do bloody well on a good day !

The plan for today is simple. Back Overs at a very generous price in the Wigan v Liverpool game. I am certain that Wigan will score. The two styles of play should lead to an open game.

Trading horses has been very dangerous with the current state of the API. This did not prevent the Geek from having an amazingly rewarding day's trading on Saturday. It's nice to know that he is capable of writing software, and trade successfully without the need for bullshit and lies like so many others.

I am tempted to trade the horses myself now but will wait until Cheltenham.

Sunday, 7 March 2010

Day 15 - Inquest and Plan

I backed Over 2.5 goals in the Arsenal V Burnley game yesterday. Goalless at halftime, I layed Under 1.5 goals and was able to escape from the game with an overall profit of around £5. These bets are not shown on published statement.

I punted £4 on Air Force One. He fell.

I ignored my own advice regarding the Man Utd game and did Over 2.5 goals. This was a real mess. Likewise, similar tactics in the Fulham game resulted in a loss there. With a complete lack of discipline I stuck £40 on the Roma V Milan game, despite many chances, no goals.

Thee games with only one goal was always going to lose a lot of money. It was made even worse as the API was erratic and I couldn't trade out when I wanted to.

I resisted the temptation to place large bets on the Real Madrid and Barcelona games in an attempt to recover my losses and finished the day still in profit overall, since the blog was started, but with a much depleted bank.

Today I will maintain my £40 stakes and have done Overs in the Aston Villa game. More as the day progresses.

Saturday, 6 March 2010

Day 14 - Plan

The friendly soccer internationals have made a mess of this week. Fortunately, we have now returned to some sort of normality.The only danger I face today is having far too many events to trade on. It could be great day or a disastrous one. My blog is now approaching the halfway stage and I need to be more adventurous.

I see no reason why there should not be three goals in the Portsmouth v Birmingham game and I have backed just over £40 at 2.54.

I don't think that Man Utd are anywhere near being a great team and, if Rooney is unfit today, they could easily struggle at Wolves and, if they did, there might possibly be few goals.

Fulham v Tottenham is possibilty for Over 2.5 later today. Spanish and Italian televised football also looks appealing.

I played around with a couple of races yesterday to be able to experience the current conditions which are making pre-race trading a somewhat precarious activity. An updated statement is provided but this doesn't show my initial bet on Over 2.5 in the Portsmouth game.

Friday, 5 March 2010

Day 13 - Plan

This "discipline" thing isn't much fun. I would ordinarily have put money on the Pittsburgh Penguins to win in overtime last night but couldn't because of my rules. They won.

Pre-race trading has been very erratic over the last few days and other traders have come unstuck. So, I think it's too dangerous to do at the moment. Nevertheless, I've messed about with a few just to see what was happening and, in the process, made a few pennies (about £4)

I'm very tempted to bet on tonight's rugby but have to resist the temptation. Sport gets back to normal tomorrow and things should be a lot more interesting.

Thursday, 4 March 2010

Day 12

Nothing happening unless I stay up all night to watch Argentinian football. Did silly little bet on horse I had tipped in Geek Forum Tipping competition. Felt guilty and greened with a profit of 28p. Horse lost.

Wednesday, 3 March 2010

Finale - Day 11

I am still annoyed over yesterday's game. Robinho is a prat. He played properly for Mark Hughes at Man City for the first few games and then stopped trying. He was half-hearted yesterday. I would have played with double stakes today if I had won yesterday so he's cost me quite a lot of money.

Anyway, my first instincts today were not to lose. I thought there was a good chance of Egypt scoring first and was content to lay England. Jumped out sensibly after Egypt scored. Couldn't watch the game in the second half but as soon as the second goal was scored I greened.

Not a bad day. Small overall loss over the last two days. I could have done something daft today in an attempt to recover but didn't.

Plan For Day 11

I don't like losing and my most of my £40 was lost yesterday. It's tempting to attempt to recover losses by increasing stakes. I want to see if I can make my bank last for my thirty day period without needing to top it up with new money. So, I cannot afford to increase my stake.

Egypt were kind to me earlier this year in the African Cup. They are a good team and work hard. It is possible that England will score early and overwhelm them but there is just a chance that, if they could keep a clean sheet for twenty minutes or so, that England will struggle.

My bets today are to lay England @ 1.42 and back Over 2.5 goals @ 1.91 in almost equal amounts and retaining £400 in my bank. These bets are not mutually exclusive and if one is successful it will just about cover the loss on the other.

Tuesday, 2 March 2010

Finale - Day 10

My bet on Over 2.5 goals was under attack from the layers from the kickoff. If I had jumped out after 15 minutes , I would have lost 25% of my £40 stake. The betting was irrational. I cannot understand why people can react to things that have not happened in a short period of time. Yes, feel free to respond to a goal, but, for God's sake, how can anybody respond to the non-scoring of a goal in such a robust way ?

I "chased" the bet. Immediately before half time a goal was scored and I could have closed with a loss of £5.51 by laying at 2.54. Within five minutes of the second half I couldn't get out with a loss of less than £13 as the layers bullied again. Robinho missed a kiddy's chance. I am prepared to "chase" a bet but never lose that amount staked in chasing. So, as the time approached when I was forced to jump out to save it, I did so, recovering £20. Sod's law kicked in and within ten seconds of this lay bet being matched, Robinho scored a second goal for Brazil.

I was never in profit in this game. I feel a little unlucky because Brazil ought to have scored more goals but, I'm afraid, that's the way it is sometimes.

Plan For Day 10

Crusaders game last night had a 3 - 0 scoreline but the last goal was scored in injury time, so did the right thing by leaving it alone.

Today's bet is pretty obvious I think. I have backed Over 2.5 goals in the game between Republic of Ireland v Brazil. I am a little surprised to see that it is hovering around the even money mark. The game is being played at Arsenal's ground and this will be a help. If the game had been played at wembley, I would have given it a miss. The pitch is poor and this is bound to influence the result in tomorrow's England v Egypt game.

Monday, 1 March 2010

Day 9

Beautiful day here in South Wales and have spent last couple of hours walking dogs in a forest in the Brecon Beacons.
There are no opportunities for me to trade today. The Crusaders v Glenavon game is on TV but I would be completely lacking in discipline if I risked any money on it.

It's going to be a poor week, I think. International soccer (friendly) matches are not the best for trading.

Sunday, 28 February 2010

Finale - Day 8

My Over 2.5 bet in the Carling Cup Final was closed immediately after Michael Owen scored. The layers panicked and allowed me get a much bigger profit that I should have had.

I was stupid enough to lose money on Scottish football and my bank target of £500 + was not realised. I was tempted to do the Over 2.5 markets in both the Bayern Munich v Hamburg game and the Atletico Madrid v Valencia game but both odds were too low at 1.7.

There is a tipping contest on Geek's Forum and I needed a winner to almost guarantee winning it. The horse was Maraafeq. I was hovering over the market and was going to put £10 on it in an attempt to get over £500. Then, I remembered my new found discipline.

Yes, you've guessed, bloody thing won ! So, that's it for me for today. It could have been a really good day but I made a bit of a mess of it.

Extra Plan

There were chances in the opening minutes of the Celtic v Rangers game and I was optimistic. Unfortunately, it soon declined into the typical slogging match that this derby match usually is. Lots of effort but nowhere near the skill of the Premier League. I was in the Over 2.5 market in the Tottenham v Everton game at the same time. I was unable to see the possibility of three goals in the Rangers game but reasonably sure of three in the Tottenham game. So, it appeared to me that the most I could hope for was getting out quits. When Tottenham scored their second goal, my profit in that game was just over £1 more than my loss in the Rangers game, so I jumped out of both at the same time. Scottish football can be really awful but I never seem to learn my lesson. Got away with it today, though.

I could lay Man Utd @ 1.9 or back Over 2.5 @ 2.1 , not much difference moneywise. So, hoping the bigger Wembley pitch may help Villa to score a goal, I have gone for Over 2.5 goals again. Bearing in mind that there was a real possibility of having two losing bets, which I have avoided, I am prepared to throw £40 at this and hope for the best.

Plan For Day 8

I backed Over 2.5 goals in The Tottenham v Everton Game last night and the price has not moved overnight. I made a mistake about the timing of the kick-offs in the Tottenham and Rangers games. I had thought the Spurs game kicked off before the Rangers game and not the other way about. I now have to enter the Over 2.5 market in the Rangers game earlier than I had originally believed I would. Price is 2.08

I am undecided about the Carling Cup Final as I fear that Aston Villa will tend to play a close game. Some time soon, the Man Utd/Rooney bandwagon will grind to a halt and it could well be today. I am even tempted to lay Man Utd but will wait to see how I get on in the earlier games.

I was right to avoid the Fiorentina v AC Milan game last night. Although finishing with Milan winning 1 - 2, the second goal was not scored until about 80 minutes and the third at about 90 minutes. It would have been a pure gamble if I had won on this game and I would certainly have had to close with a loss at about half time.

Barcelona won 2 - 1 at home to Malaga but, again, the second and third goals were scored at 81 and 84 minutes, so I would have had another loss if I had traded sensibly.

Real Madrid won easily but the price for Over 2.5 was far too low and had I traded all three games, I would have made a signicant overall loss.

Saturday, 27 February 2010

Finale - Day 7

I still haven't recovered from the awful Juventus v Ajax game and lack the courage to be able to stomach any more Italian football in the form of the Lazio v Fiorentina game. A reasonable day. Two nice games of football tomorrow Aston Villa v Man Utd and Tottenham v Everton. Will I cut loose and do something other than Over 2.5 goals ? Watch this space !

And, then ......

I backed Over 3.5 tries in the England v Ireland rugby game but hadn't taken account of the poor weather in Twickenham. Nice and sunny in South Wales, pouring down up there. If I had realised this, I wouldn't have done the bet but the Gods smiled on me and I had my four tries.

I put £40 on Over 2.5 goals in the Stoke v Arsenal game @ 2.02. I reckon the odds should have been something like 1.8. Greened after Bendtner equalised. The Chelsea v Man City game went on to have five goals and it could be argued that I jumped out too soon but anybody who had seen the first half, as I did, would agree that I had done the right thing at the time. I suspect that there will be at least one more goal in the Stoke v Arsenal game but am happy to take what is available to me now.

There are very skinny prices for Over 2.5 goals in the games involving Real Madrid and Barcelona. I am more tempted to take the odds of 2.4 being offered in the Lazio v Fiorentina game. Chances are I will not be able to view it as I've been watching sport for nearly seven hours and the family are afraid that I will have DVT.

Extra Plan !

The Chelsea v Man City game exploded into life with two goals right at the end of the first half. I was sitting on a loss of about half of my stake and now am able to take half of the winnings that I might have won if my bet had been successful. So, what do I do ? I jump out and take my profit. Nothing cowardly abut this. I've been given a chance to turn a loss into a significant win and would be daft not to take it.
Taking the "big" dog for a walk now and will consider the England v Ireland rugby match on my return.

Plan For Day 7

The Chelsea v Man City game has lots of players who can score goals and the market price for Over 2.5 goals is 1.87 and I have taken it. The Racing Post thinks that it will be a cagey game and recommends backing Unders, This, of itself, is good enough reason to follow my selection.
The England v Ireland rugby match is very interesting and I am undecided about the result. There is, however, scope for tries in this game and the price for Over 3.5 is 2.12. Again, I will be going against the recommendations of the Racing Post and
I will take this price if I win in the Chelsea game.
Saturdays can be very busy and it's easy to do too many bets at a time. I'm optimistic about winning today and am looking forward to Stoke v Arsenal later. More later.

Friday, 26 February 2010

Finale Following A Little Confusion

Wales were little unlucky to lose and played poorly in the first half. My Over 3.5 bet should have been secured comparatively early in the game but silly errors intervened. The fourth try was scored with 52 seconds of the game left. About bloody time I had some luck ! :)

Extra, Extra Plan

The Welsh captain, Ryan Jones, has been injured immediately before the game. He would be a key player if Wales was to win this game so, I have jumped out with a one-tick loss 0f about 61p.

Extra Plan

I cannot resist laying France in the rugby game tonight.If I'm prepared to put £40 on a Mickey Mouse football match like the one I did last night I should surely be willing to put money on Wales winning at Cardiff. I have layed France for £ 85 @ 1.39. If they stuff us, I'll recover some money in the Over 3.5 try market.

Plan For Day 6

Wales play France in Cardiff tonight in the Six Nations Tournament. France are way odds on to win but I think that odds should be more like even money. I had considered laying France @ 1.4 but have now ruled that out and taken the easy option of backing Over 3.5 tries @2.02 for the strange amount of £ 22.54. This was the amount available at that price and I refuse to back at even money in this sort of market. There are far too many crooks setting markets for Overs and Unders, both at odds on, so as to ensure a sort of arbitrage when both of their offers are accepted.
There is little scope for trading in running in this market so this will end up as a straight gamble, probably.
I'm not prepared to gamble on either of the televised football games tonight. The German game looks particularly unappealing.
I think I'll win tonight and am going to cut loose tomorrow with some big bets.

Thursday, 25 February 2010

Day 5 - Finale

I did the right thing by getting out at half time. Gross error of judgment by getting into the game in the first instance. The Dutch normally show more guts than this lot.

Day 5 - Outcome

Ajax are playing like fairies. I had hoped that they would, at least, have tried. Totally spineless performance by them against a much more talented Juventus side. No score at half time forces me out with a loss. It woud be crazy to stay in. The second half is due to start at the time I am writing this. I will have to wait until the final whistle for the market to be settled as I can't see any chance of three goals closing it.

It's a pity since the evening started so well with my correct score in the Liverpool game. It's an amusing bet to back the underdog to win 3 - 0. If they score first, there's always decent profit.

I made a loss today but it could have been so much worse. My usual trick is to bet on more than one game on days like this and either "win big" or "get stuffed". A dangerous day has passed without too much damage. I'll post my statement later.

Plans For Day 5

I am not particularly keen on any of the games today. Ajax v Juventus was a good game to watch last week and I think it likely that it will be entertaining today too.
So, it's likely that my main bet will be something like £40 @ 1.92 in the Over 2.5 goals market.
I cannot see Liverpool or Fulham scoring lots of goals and think both will struggle to get a result. I have an odd £2.65 at the end of my balance, and in need of some amusement, I have placed this on the correct score of 3 - 0 ( 160 ) to the home team Unirea Urziceni. I see no reason why they should not score first and I'll make money if they do.
Just the one big bet tonight. Far too many games and most will be influenced by results in the first leg so, I believe, not as many goals flying around.

Wednesday, 24 February 2010

Day 4 - Outcome

I didn't fancy the CSKA v Sevilla game as the betting pre-match seemed very suspicious to me. Prior to kick off over £ 250,000 had been traded on this market and 80% of that was backing Unders. By contrast, at the same time less than £75,000 had been traded on tha Fiorentina v AC Milan game. I appreciate that the first game was on Sky and the second on ESPN and that the imbalance may have been due in part to there being lesser interest in the ESPN game as it has fewer viewers. I thought it was a bit dodgy and left it alone.

Fiorentina scored early for me (14 mins)and I stayed in the market in the reasonable expectation that there would be more goals. I allowed my profit to dwindle away and closed at half time with a loss of about a fiver. The way that Milan were playing at that time, they could have been on the pitch on their own and failed to score. It's disappointing to have an early goal and end up not winning but better to lose £5 than £40. Final score was 1 - 2, Milan scoring the winner in the second minute of injury time, so it would have been a pure gamble if I had let it run.

I backed Over 2.5 goals @ 2.72 in the Inter v Chelsea game and greened after 11 minutes by laying at 1.75. I am determined to make a profit if I can on any given day so am prepared to "jump out too early" if that's what it takes. If I had won in the earlier game, I'd have allowed my Inter bet to run longer. They reached the three goals shortly after half time which is nice because at least my judgment about the game was correct even though I didn't make as much as I might have done if I'd stayed in.

Plans For Day 4

There are three televised games in the UK today. I will definitely enter the Over 2.5 goal market in the Fiorentina v AC Milan game which is on early at 5.30 pm. Current odds are 2.28.
CSKA Moscow v Sevilla kicks off at the same time and the odds are 2.4. I'm very wary of this game as it will be CSKA's first competitive game following their winter break and Sevilla may not like the cold weather. I'll watch it for 5/10 minutes and make up my mind then.
Inter Milan v Chelsea has huge odds for Over 2.5 goals - 2.68. I don't know what my stake is going to be yet as I'm going to see if I make any money in the first two games.

Day 4

I couldn't understand why the odds for Over 2.5 goals were as high as they were before kickoff. The game had some chances in the early stages but was far from scintillating. Nevertheless, the back price increased very quickly. This is what I call "layer bullying". People attempt to control the market by asking for prices which are unreasonable given the actual state of the game. One has three alternatives. Let the existing bet ride, "chase the bet" by placing another price at what is believed to be a false higher price, or allow oneself to be "bullied" by the laying bastards and take a big loss.

My temperament doesn't allow me to be bullied and, in view of the fact, that I thought that the price available was too high, I placed another £10 bet at the prevailing higher odds. The price continued to race out and had reached 7.2 just before half time as the first goal was scored. I knew that I would not be watching the second half and "greened" with a small profit.

My usual tactic would be to let the game run until either my potential profit hit zero, when I would green to recover my stake, or until another goal was scored. If another goal was scored I would repeat the process running down the revised profit in the hope of a third goal, but ensuring that my initial stake was not lost.

I am conscious of the fact that my bets are now open to more scrutiny than before but only "greened" because I would not be seeing the game for myself. I am not afraid to lose some times.

Tuesday, 23 February 2010

Day 3 - The Plan

I know now that I am not going to be able to trade horses today. Three nice football games available, one Premier League, two Champions League games.

Man Utd should beat West Ham but if Rooney is not "on fire" they could even lose it. Odds of about 1.62 are very low for Over 2.5 goals. West Ham would be dead chuffed to get a draw so they will try to counter attack and keep Man Utd out. Alex will get well worked up and may throw enough tea cups to make them score loads of goals but at this price I will pass them by.

Stuttgart v Barcelona is a game where both teams can score and this could be a great game. The reality is that Barcelona would probably win the tie and progress to the next round with a 0 - 0 draw. They don't need to score goals, just need to stop Stuttgart. A much better price than the Man Utd game at around 1.8 but still poor.
So, we are left with Olympiacos v Bordeaux game. Over 2.5 goals is 2.6 ! There is absolutely no reason why there should not be more than 2.5 goals in this game, or, at least, an early goal, allowing greening with profit.

There is only one bet for me and it is going to be £ 29.30 @ 2.6 in the Olympiacos game.

Monday, 22 February 2010

Day 2

I had no chance of trading any horses today as I had to be in and out of the house all the afternoon. Tonight's TV football is Rotherham v Shrewsbury and I have no views on it at all. I had noticed that Valencia were playing Getafe tonight but neither side is playing well and the pitch at Valencia resembles Blackpool beach so I'll give it a miss.
Here is my starting statement.

Sunday, 21 February 2010

Day 1

Ah well ! Here we go ! Up until today I have only tried to have fun with my trading and have been trading on as many as ten events every day. From now on I intend being more sensible and am going to impose a period of thirty days of misery where I must use all of my best brain to try to make money without having any fun. No more putting a couple of quid on a horse because I like its name. No more trading in the Over 2.5 goal market in every televised game. I had a reasonable day today on this my last day of freedom.

My starting bank on 22 February 2010 is going to be £ 349.30 for no other reason than that is how much I have in it now. I'll try my best to provide documentary evidence of my successes and failures but I'm not much good at screen capture software. Perhaps, at the end of my thirty day stint, I will be an expert at "snapshots" even though I may be skint.

The blog will be kept a secret for the first five days so as to give me the chance of writing something for others to read. From then on, my daily progress will be recorded faithfully as I try to instill some discipline into my trading. I will give details of all bets and my reasons for doing them.