Sunday, 28 February 2010

Finale - Day 8

My Over 2.5 bet in the Carling Cup Final was closed immediately after Michael Owen scored. The layers panicked and allowed me get a much bigger profit that I should have had.

I was stupid enough to lose money on Scottish football and my bank target of £500 + was not realised. I was tempted to do the Over 2.5 markets in both the Bayern Munich v Hamburg game and the Atletico Madrid v Valencia game but both odds were too low at 1.7.

There is a tipping contest on Geek's Forum and I needed a winner to almost guarantee winning it. The horse was Maraafeq. I was hovering over the market and was going to put £10 on it in an attempt to get over £500. Then, I remembered my new found discipline.

Yes, you've guessed, bloody thing won ! So, that's it for me for today. It could have been a really good day but I made a bit of a mess of it.

Extra Plan

There were chances in the opening minutes of the Celtic v Rangers game and I was optimistic. Unfortunately, it soon declined into the typical slogging match that this derby match usually is. Lots of effort but nowhere near the skill of the Premier League. I was in the Over 2.5 market in the Tottenham v Everton game at the same time. I was unable to see the possibility of three goals in the Rangers game but reasonably sure of three in the Tottenham game. So, it appeared to me that the most I could hope for was getting out quits. When Tottenham scored their second goal, my profit in that game was just over £1 more than my loss in the Rangers game, so I jumped out of both at the same time. Scottish football can be really awful but I never seem to learn my lesson. Got away with it today, though.

I could lay Man Utd @ 1.9 or back Over 2.5 @ 2.1 , not much difference moneywise. So, hoping the bigger Wembley pitch may help Villa to score a goal, I have gone for Over 2.5 goals again. Bearing in mind that there was a real possibility of having two losing bets, which I have avoided, I am prepared to throw £40 at this and hope for the best.

Plan For Day 8

I backed Over 2.5 goals in The Tottenham v Everton Game last night and the price has not moved overnight. I made a mistake about the timing of the kick-offs in the Tottenham and Rangers games. I had thought the Spurs game kicked off before the Rangers game and not the other way about. I now have to enter the Over 2.5 market in the Rangers game earlier than I had originally believed I would. Price is 2.08

I am undecided about the Carling Cup Final as I fear that Aston Villa will tend to play a close game. Some time soon, the Man Utd/Rooney bandwagon will grind to a halt and it could well be today. I am even tempted to lay Man Utd but will wait to see how I get on in the earlier games.

I was right to avoid the Fiorentina v AC Milan game last night. Although finishing with Milan winning 1 - 2, the second goal was not scored until about 80 minutes and the third at about 90 minutes. It would have been a pure gamble if I had won on this game and I would certainly have had to close with a loss at about half time.

Barcelona won 2 - 1 at home to Malaga but, again, the second and third goals were scored at 81 and 84 minutes, so I would have had another loss if I had traded sensibly.

Real Madrid won easily but the price for Over 2.5 was far too low and had I traded all three games, I would have made a signicant overall loss.

Saturday, 27 February 2010

Finale - Day 7

I still haven't recovered from the awful Juventus v Ajax game and lack the courage to be able to stomach any more Italian football in the form of the Lazio v Fiorentina game. A reasonable day. Two nice games of football tomorrow Aston Villa v Man Utd and Tottenham v Everton. Will I cut loose and do something other than Over 2.5 goals ? Watch this space !

And, then ......

I backed Over 3.5 tries in the England v Ireland rugby game but hadn't taken account of the poor weather in Twickenham. Nice and sunny in South Wales, pouring down up there. If I had realised this, I wouldn't have done the bet but the Gods smiled on me and I had my four tries.

I put £40 on Over 2.5 goals in the Stoke v Arsenal game @ 2.02. I reckon the odds should have been something like 1.8. Greened after Bendtner equalised. The Chelsea v Man City game went on to have five goals and it could be argued that I jumped out too soon but anybody who had seen the first half, as I did, would agree that I had done the right thing at the time. I suspect that there will be at least one more goal in the Stoke v Arsenal game but am happy to take what is available to me now.

There are very skinny prices for Over 2.5 goals in the games involving Real Madrid and Barcelona. I am more tempted to take the odds of 2.4 being offered in the Lazio v Fiorentina game. Chances are I will not be able to view it as I've been watching sport for nearly seven hours and the family are afraid that I will have DVT.

Extra Plan !

The Chelsea v Man City game exploded into life with two goals right at the end of the first half. I was sitting on a loss of about half of my stake and now am able to take half of the winnings that I might have won if my bet had been successful. So, what do I do ? I jump out and take my profit. Nothing cowardly abut this. I've been given a chance to turn a loss into a significant win and would be daft not to take it.
Taking the "big" dog for a walk now and will consider the England v Ireland rugby match on my return.

Plan For Day 7

The Chelsea v Man City game has lots of players who can score goals and the market price for Over 2.5 goals is 1.87 and I have taken it. The Racing Post thinks that it will be a cagey game and recommends backing Unders, This, of itself, is good enough reason to follow my selection.
The England v Ireland rugby match is very interesting and I am undecided about the result. There is, however, scope for tries in this game and the price for Over 3.5 is 2.12. Again, I will be going against the recommendations of the Racing Post and
I will take this price if I win in the Chelsea game.
Saturdays can be very busy and it's easy to do too many bets at a time. I'm optimistic about winning today and am looking forward to Stoke v Arsenal later. More later.

Friday, 26 February 2010

Finale Following A Little Confusion

Wales were little unlucky to lose and played poorly in the first half. My Over 3.5 bet should have been secured comparatively early in the game but silly errors intervened. The fourth try was scored with 52 seconds of the game left. About bloody time I had some luck ! :)

Extra, Extra Plan

The Welsh captain, Ryan Jones, has been injured immediately before the game. He would be a key player if Wales was to win this game so, I have jumped out with a one-tick loss 0f about 61p.

Extra Plan

I cannot resist laying France in the rugby game tonight.If I'm prepared to put £40 on a Mickey Mouse football match like the one I did last night I should surely be willing to put money on Wales winning at Cardiff. I have layed France for £ 85 @ 1.39. If they stuff us, I'll recover some money in the Over 3.5 try market.

Plan For Day 6

Wales play France in Cardiff tonight in the Six Nations Tournament. France are way odds on to win but I think that odds should be more like even money. I had considered laying France @ 1.4 but have now ruled that out and taken the easy option of backing Over 3.5 tries @2.02 for the strange amount of £ 22.54. This was the amount available at that price and I refuse to back at even money in this sort of market. There are far too many crooks setting markets for Overs and Unders, both at odds on, so as to ensure a sort of arbitrage when both of their offers are accepted.
There is little scope for trading in running in this market so this will end up as a straight gamble, probably.
I'm not prepared to gamble on either of the televised football games tonight. The German game looks particularly unappealing.
I think I'll win tonight and am going to cut loose tomorrow with some big bets.

Thursday, 25 February 2010

Day 5 - Finale

I did the right thing by getting out at half time. Gross error of judgment by getting into the game in the first instance. The Dutch normally show more guts than this lot.

Day 5 - Outcome

Ajax are playing like fairies. I had hoped that they would, at least, have tried. Totally spineless performance by them against a much more talented Juventus side. No score at half time forces me out with a loss. It woud be crazy to stay in. The second half is due to start at the time I am writing this. I will have to wait until the final whistle for the market to be settled as I can't see any chance of three goals closing it.

It's a pity since the evening started so well with my correct score in the Liverpool game. It's an amusing bet to back the underdog to win 3 - 0. If they score first, there's always decent profit.

I made a loss today but it could have been so much worse. My usual trick is to bet on more than one game on days like this and either "win big" or "get stuffed". A dangerous day has passed without too much damage. I'll post my statement later.

Plans For Day 5

I am not particularly keen on any of the games today. Ajax v Juventus was a good game to watch last week and I think it likely that it will be entertaining today too.
So, it's likely that my main bet will be something like £40 @ 1.92 in the Over 2.5 goals market.
I cannot see Liverpool or Fulham scoring lots of goals and think both will struggle to get a result. I have an odd £2.65 at the end of my balance, and in need of some amusement, I have placed this on the correct score of 3 - 0 ( 160 ) to the home team Unirea Urziceni. I see no reason why they should not score first and I'll make money if they do.
Just the one big bet tonight. Far too many games and most will be influenced by results in the first leg so, I believe, not as many goals flying around.

Wednesday, 24 February 2010

Day 4 - Outcome

I didn't fancy the CSKA v Sevilla game as the betting pre-match seemed very suspicious to me. Prior to kick off over £ 250,000 had been traded on this market and 80% of that was backing Unders. By contrast, at the same time less than £75,000 had been traded on tha Fiorentina v AC Milan game. I appreciate that the first game was on Sky and the second on ESPN and that the imbalance may have been due in part to there being lesser interest in the ESPN game as it has fewer viewers. I thought it was a bit dodgy and left it alone.

Fiorentina scored early for me (14 mins)and I stayed in the market in the reasonable expectation that there would be more goals. I allowed my profit to dwindle away and closed at half time with a loss of about a fiver. The way that Milan were playing at that time, they could have been on the pitch on their own and failed to score. It's disappointing to have an early goal and end up not winning but better to lose £5 than £40. Final score was 1 - 2, Milan scoring the winner in the second minute of injury time, so it would have been a pure gamble if I had let it run.

I backed Over 2.5 goals @ 2.72 in the Inter v Chelsea game and greened after 11 minutes by laying at 1.75. I am determined to make a profit if I can on any given day so am prepared to "jump out too early" if that's what it takes. If I had won in the earlier game, I'd have allowed my Inter bet to run longer. They reached the three goals shortly after half time which is nice because at least my judgment about the game was correct even though I didn't make as much as I might have done if I'd stayed in.

Plans For Day 4

There are three televised games in the UK today. I will definitely enter the Over 2.5 goal market in the Fiorentina v AC Milan game which is on early at 5.30 pm. Current odds are 2.28.
CSKA Moscow v Sevilla kicks off at the same time and the odds are 2.4. I'm very wary of this game as it will be CSKA's first competitive game following their winter break and Sevilla may not like the cold weather. I'll watch it for 5/10 minutes and make up my mind then.
Inter Milan v Chelsea has huge odds for Over 2.5 goals - 2.68. I don't know what my stake is going to be yet as I'm going to see if I make any money in the first two games.

Day 4

I couldn't understand why the odds for Over 2.5 goals were as high as they were before kickoff. The game had some chances in the early stages but was far from scintillating. Nevertheless, the back price increased very quickly. This is what I call "layer bullying". People attempt to control the market by asking for prices which are unreasonable given the actual state of the game. One has three alternatives. Let the existing bet ride, "chase the bet" by placing another price at what is believed to be a false higher price, or allow oneself to be "bullied" by the laying bastards and take a big loss.

My temperament doesn't allow me to be bullied and, in view of the fact, that I thought that the price available was too high, I placed another £10 bet at the prevailing higher odds. The price continued to race out and had reached 7.2 just before half time as the first goal was scored. I knew that I would not be watching the second half and "greened" with a small profit.

My usual tactic would be to let the game run until either my potential profit hit zero, when I would green to recover my stake, or until another goal was scored. If another goal was scored I would repeat the process running down the revised profit in the hope of a third goal, but ensuring that my initial stake was not lost.

I am conscious of the fact that my bets are now open to more scrutiny than before but only "greened" because I would not be seeing the game for myself. I am not afraid to lose some times.

Tuesday, 23 February 2010

Day 3 - The Plan

I know now that I am not going to be able to trade horses today. Three nice football games available, one Premier League, two Champions League games.

Man Utd should beat West Ham but if Rooney is not "on fire" they could even lose it. Odds of about 1.62 are very low for Over 2.5 goals. West Ham would be dead chuffed to get a draw so they will try to counter attack and keep Man Utd out. Alex will get well worked up and may throw enough tea cups to make them score loads of goals but at this price I will pass them by.

Stuttgart v Barcelona is a game where both teams can score and this could be a great game. The reality is that Barcelona would probably win the tie and progress to the next round with a 0 - 0 draw. They don't need to score goals, just need to stop Stuttgart. A much better price than the Man Utd game at around 1.8 but still poor.
So, we are left with Olympiacos v Bordeaux game. Over 2.5 goals is 2.6 ! There is absolutely no reason why there should not be more than 2.5 goals in this game, or, at least, an early goal, allowing greening with profit.

There is only one bet for me and it is going to be £ 29.30 @ 2.6 in the Olympiacos game.

Monday, 22 February 2010

Day 2

I had no chance of trading any horses today as I had to be in and out of the house all the afternoon. Tonight's TV football is Rotherham v Shrewsbury and I have no views on it at all. I had noticed that Valencia were playing Getafe tonight but neither side is playing well and the pitch at Valencia resembles Blackpool beach so I'll give it a miss.
Here is my starting statement.

Sunday, 21 February 2010

Day 1

Ah well ! Here we go ! Up until today I have only tried to have fun with my trading and have been trading on as many as ten events every day. From now on I intend being more sensible and am going to impose a period of thirty days of misery where I must use all of my best brain to try to make money without having any fun. No more putting a couple of quid on a horse because I like its name. No more trading in the Over 2.5 goal market in every televised game. I had a reasonable day today on this my last day of freedom.

My starting bank on 22 February 2010 is going to be £ 349.30 for no other reason than that is how much I have in it now. I'll try my best to provide documentary evidence of my successes and failures but I'm not much good at screen capture software. Perhaps, at the end of my thirty day stint, I will be an expert at "snapshots" even though I may be skint.

The blog will be kept a secret for the first five days so as to give me the chance of writing something for others to read. From then on, my daily progress will be recorded faithfully as I try to instill some discipline into my trading. I will give details of all bets and my reasons for doing them.