nigelbleddfa

nigelbleddfa

Wednesday 24 February 2010

Day 4 - Outcome


I didn't fancy the CSKA v Sevilla game as the betting pre-match seemed very suspicious to me. Prior to kick off over £ 250,000 had been traded on this market and 80% of that was backing Unders. By contrast, at the same time less than £75,000 had been traded on tha Fiorentina v AC Milan game. I appreciate that the first game was on Sky and the second on ESPN and that the imbalance may have been due in part to there being lesser interest in the ESPN game as it has fewer viewers. I thought it was a bit dodgy and left it alone.

Fiorentina scored early for me (14 mins)and I stayed in the market in the reasonable expectation that there would be more goals. I allowed my profit to dwindle away and closed at half time with a loss of about a fiver. The way that Milan were playing at that time, they could have been on the pitch on their own and failed to score. It's disappointing to have an early goal and end up not winning but better to lose £5 than £40. Final score was 1 - 2, Milan scoring the winner in the second minute of injury time, so it would have been a pure gamble if I had let it run.

I backed Over 2.5 goals @ 2.72 in the Inter v Chelsea game and greened after 11 minutes by laying at 1.75. I am determined to make a profit if I can on any given day so am prepared to "jump out too early" if that's what it takes. If I had won in the earlier game, I'd have allowed my Inter bet to run longer. They reached the three goals shortly after half time which is nice because at least my judgment about the game was correct even though I didn't make as much as I might have done if I'd stayed in.

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