Day 24 - Cheltenham

Liverpool won comfortably last night and my Over 2.5 goals market was a winner. I haven't provided a statement today as too little to go on it and not worth bothering with.

Cheltenham is my favourite sporting occasion of the year. I allow myself the indulgence of gambling. I have done a small stake Heinz bet covering the first day's racing. Only 25p per unit stake for a total of £14.25 but in the unlikely event of getting six winners , I will win a Million pounds.

My selections are :

Dan Breen
Sports Line
Exmoor Ranger
Khyber Kim
Another Jewel
Amber Brook.

I have tiny stake of £4 on my first selection and will continue with small stakes until I have a winner, in which case I will cut loose and place much bigger bets.

I am more concerned about the two Champions League games tonight. Also, having pushed my way over the £500 mark, I am reluctant to risk too much now. I only have six more days left in the life of my blog and do not want to end up losing if I can avoid it.

I will trade all my selections in running. Absolutely no pre-race trading !

I think there will be goals in both Euro games tonight. Inter Milan cannot afford to sit back and defend at Chelsea as Chelsea have an away goal. I will be doing both games. Current odds for both are around about Evens.

Day 23 Plan for Today

This is my second post today, the earlier one dated Monday 15/3/10 was a summary of yesterday's bets.

Today's plan is to place a bet in the Over 2.5 market in the Liverpool v Portsmouth game and to to study form for Cheltenham.

I normally have all my Cheltenham bets sorted out by now and would know almost every bet I would be doing in the Festival. This year is different because I have never faced a Cheltenham meeting where there seem to be so many "good things". I am hoping that they will all come unstuck and that there will be total carnage with the bookmakers cleaning up. My reason for this is that I will be betting outsiders on almost every event.

My only certain bet is to back Imperial Commander in the Gold Cup. Denman will lead the field and "blow up". Kauto Star and Imperial Commander will be close to each other at the last fence, Kauto Star will lose all chance as he makes a mess of jumping, and Imperial Commander will win by six lengths easing up.

I may be forced to Dutch Irish outsiders in some races as none of them has come here just for the fun of it and all are dangerous.

So, Imperial Commander for the big one, and the Irish to have at least eight winners.

Day 22 Inquest

Traded in Over 2.5 goal markets as usual. The Barcelona game was one which always seemed to have goals in it and I stayed in to the death. I also chased it by backing it during the match as well. With the opposition down to ten men anything was possible and the best player in world football, Lionel Messi, scored three brilliant goals.

For those thinking that my entry for profit/loss in the Real Madrid game is a little strange, I allowed my profit from the first goal to run down in the hope of a second and greened to recover my stake. So, a bet for nothing. Final score was well over three goals but I'd been watching football for eight hours and needed to check out.

At last, for a moment at least, my account balance has passed the £500 mark. I cannot begin to tell you how pressurised I feel by trying to trade so publicly. There have been many times when my gut feeling was to do a bet but I didn't because I didn't want to make a fool of myself here. To that extent the blog has cost me money. On the other hand, my frivolous bets have been far fewer and cost me only about £2o in all. So, on balance, my discipline has improved.

I attach my overall p/l account for yesterday and the last few entries on my statement.

Days 20 and 21

I haven't had enough time to do my blog during the last couple of days and I am trying to catch up. The profit and loss account and last page of statement are shown for these days. The highlights are :
(i) I was disturbed when trading horse pre-race yesterday afternoon. My new puppy started messing around and was pulling papers of a coffee table and then he began to pull cushions of chairs. I had layed two bets of £40. Seeing that I had to jump out quickly, I placed two more bets of £40 to close my position. After I finished sorting Snowy out, I returned to my screen to discover that the last two bets I had placed were lay bets not back bets. I now had a liability of £280 and a loss of nearly £30. I hedged out just in time before the off.
I continued trading at for the next for races I recovered about £15. Then, my wife came to show my a new jacket she had bought to go to a presentation at the Thai Embassy in London next Wednesday and I screwed up again. There will be not more pre-race trading until I can guarantee no interruptions.

(ii) I backed Over 2.5 goals in the Napoli v Fiorentina game and managed to make a loss of Over £50 at half time. I then layed £200 on the Under 1.5 market and, when a goal was scored immediately after half time, I made a profit of Over £90.

That's pretty much it.

Day 19 Conclusion

I felt the need to cut loose today and increase my stakes. I felt happy that if I backed Over 2.5 goals in each of the UK televised games that I would not lose.
The first three games kicked off at the same time. I had expected Liverpool to fail to win and it was frustrating to see my Over 2.5 money go down the drain.

Sporting Lisbon lost a man early in the game and it seemed certain that Atletico Madrid would score goals. They managed to screw up for me. Fortunately Hamburg went to plan.

My original bet was to do Overs in the Juventus game and had done it earlier today. In view of my overall loss in the earlier games I decided I would double my stake on it. Two early goals were scored and I greened. I could have made another £32 if I had stayed in because Fulham scored the third. Nevertheless, having risked £ 200 and to find myself in profit. albeit small, it would have been daft to stay in and risk over £140 to win an extra £32.

A little reckless today but this is because I am running out of time now. I only have two weekends football and Cheltenham races before this blog closes so I must press on.

I have set my own personal target for my bank at the end and am either going to achieve it or blow it. I'll still try to be sensible. I have attached a profit and loss account and the last part of my statement.

Day 19 Inquest and Plan.

Yesterday was a reasonably sensible day. I did Over 2.5 goals in both Champions League games and greened immediately after the first goal was scored in each. I intended re-entering the markets at half time. In view of the urgent need of the Real Madrid team, I entered Overs in that game. Wrong choice. I allowed myself a period for goals to be scored by allowing my profit to dwindle to almost zero and then greened. My frivolous correct score failed to pay off this time. So, a small profit on the day.

Two games tonight are Lille v Liverpool, Juventus v Fulham. I can easily see Liverpool losing this one but the odds are much too high to consider laying them. I think that they will probably lose 2 - 0 ( 18 ).

I have already backed Over 2.5 goals in the Juventus game. Fulham have done very well since Christmas but I think that they will be outclassed. I am considering bookings odds in this game too ( 1.78 ) for 9 points and over.

Day 18 Inquest and Plan

Yesterday was very easy. Loads of goals in both Champions League ties and couldn't fail to make money. I did Over 2.5 goals in both games and traded out far too early in the Fiorentina game, but wasn't watching it and recovered my stake when I had the chance. I greened in the Arsenal game at 2 - 0 and the game "died" a little. Then, before half time Arsenal became very dominant and I thought that they would go on to score more goals. Instead of re-entering the Over 2.5 market or the Over 3.5 market, I decided that it was likely that Arsenal would score two more goals in the second half so I entered the correct score market and backed "Any Unquoted" price as this was good value. I recovered the "winnings" I had lost by greening the Over 2,5 market too soon and made me feel a little bit chuffed because, even if I say it myself, It was a clever thing to do.

No horses today as I have discovered, if I get out of my chair, that there is a place called "outside" and I have been walking Benny and Snowy there in lovely sunshine.

The Over 2.5 market in the Real Madrid Market is at a low price at 1.6. I have already put £40 on it and am very tempted to double this. Real Madrid have to score two goals to win the tie in 90 minutes. A goal by Lyons would, I think, make three or more goals a certainty.

I still don't think that Man Utd are anywhere near being a top team. Having seen AC Milan play many times this year, I am far from convinced that United will get through this tie. I had considered laying Man Utd but 1.78 is way too high. The Over 2.5 market is not generous at 1.88.

If I am right, and Utd fail to progress, it will be because Milan have won by two clear goals, 0 - 2 being the most likely score if they should achieve this. Current odds are 34. I've stuck £4 on it for an interest and if Milan score first, I'll win a couple of quid. Done this trick twice in the last couple of weeks, and it's a fun thing to do.

If I don't convince myself to put £40 on Over 2.5 in the Man Utd game, I might double up on the Real Madrid game.