Finale - Day 8

My Over 2.5 bet in the Carling Cup Final was closed immediately after Michael Owen scored. The layers panicked and allowed me get a much bigger profit that I should have had.

I was stupid enough to lose money on Scottish football and my bank target of £500 + was not realised. I was tempted to do the Over 2.5 markets in both the Bayern Munich v Hamburg game and the Atletico Madrid v Valencia game but both odds were too low at 1.7.

There is a tipping contest on Geek's Forum and I needed a winner to almost guarantee winning it. The horse was Maraafeq. I was hovering over the market and was going to put £10 on it in an attempt to get over £500. Then, I remembered my new found discipline.

Yes, you've guessed, bloody thing won ! So, that's it for me for today. It could have been a really good day but I made a bit of a mess of it.

Extra Plan

There were chances in the opening minutes of the Celtic v Rangers game and I was optimistic. Unfortunately, it soon declined into the typical slogging match that this derby match usually is. Lots of effort but nowhere near the skill of the Premier League. I was in the Over 2.5 market in the Tottenham v Everton game at the same time. I was unable to see the possibility of three goals in the Rangers game but reasonably sure of three in the Tottenham game. So, it appeared to me that the most I could hope for was getting out quits. When Tottenham scored their second goal, my profit in that game was just over £1 more than my loss in the Rangers game, so I jumped out of both at the same time. Scottish football can be really awful but I never seem to learn my lesson. Got away with it today, though.

I could lay Man Utd @ 1.9 or back Over 2.5 @ 2.1 , not much difference moneywise. So, hoping the bigger Wembley pitch may help Villa to score a goal, I have gone for Over 2.5 goals again. Bearing in mind that there was a real possibility of having two losing bets, which I have avoided, I am prepared to throw £40 at this and hope for the best.

Plan For Day 8

I backed Over 2.5 goals in The Tottenham v Everton Game last night and the price has not moved overnight. I made a mistake about the timing of the kick-offs in the Tottenham and Rangers games. I had thought the Spurs game kicked off before the Rangers game and not the other way about. I now have to enter the Over 2.5 market in the Rangers game earlier than I had originally believed I would. Price is 2.08

I am undecided about the Carling Cup Final as I fear that Aston Villa will tend to play a close game. Some time soon, the Man Utd/Rooney bandwagon will grind to a halt and it could well be today. I am even tempted to lay Man Utd but will wait to see how I get on in the earlier games.

I was right to avoid the Fiorentina v AC Milan game last night. Although finishing with Milan winning 1 - 2, the second goal was not scored until about 80 minutes and the third at about 90 minutes. It would have been a pure gamble if I had won on this game and I would certainly have had to close with a loss at about half time.

Barcelona won 2 - 1 at home to Malaga but, again, the second and third goals were scored at 81 and 84 minutes, so I would have had another loss if I had traded sensibly.

Real Madrid won easily but the price for Over 2.5 was far too low and had I traded all three games, I would have made a signicant overall loss.

Finale - Day 7

I still haven't recovered from the awful Juventus v Ajax game and lack the courage to be able to stomach any more Italian football in the form of the Lazio v Fiorentina game. A reasonable day. Two nice games of football tomorrow Aston Villa v Man Utd and Tottenham v Everton. Will I cut loose and do something other than Over 2.5 goals ? Watch this space !

And, then ......

I backed Over 3.5 tries in the England v Ireland rugby game but hadn't taken account of the poor weather in Twickenham. Nice and sunny in South Wales, pouring down up there. If I had realised this, I wouldn't have done the bet but the Gods smiled on me and I had my four tries.

I put £40 on Over 2.5 goals in the Stoke v Arsenal game @ 2.02. I reckon the odds should have been something like 1.8. Greened after Bendtner equalised. The Chelsea v Man City game went on to have five goals and it could be argued that I jumped out too soon but anybody who had seen the first half, as I did, would agree that I had done the right thing at the time. I suspect that there will be at least one more goal in the Stoke v Arsenal game but am happy to take what is available to me now.

There are very skinny prices for Over 2.5 goals in the games involving Real Madrid and Barcelona. I am more tempted to take the odds of 2.4 being offered in the Lazio v Fiorentina game. Chances are I will not be able to view it as I've been watching sport for nearly seven hours and the family are afraid that I will have DVT.

Extra Plan !

The Chelsea v Man City game exploded into life with two goals right at the end of the first half. I was sitting on a loss of about half of my stake and now am able to take half of the winnings that I might have won if my bet had been successful. So, what do I do ? I jump out and take my profit. Nothing cowardly abut this. I've been given a chance to turn a loss into a significant win and would be daft not to take it.
Taking the "big" dog for a walk now and will consider the England v Ireland rugby match on my return.

Plan For Day 7

The Chelsea v Man City game has lots of players who can score goals and the market price for Over 2.5 goals is 1.87 and I have taken it. The Racing Post thinks that it will be a cagey game and recommends backing Unders, This, of itself, is good enough reason to follow my selection.
The England v Ireland rugby match is very interesting and I am undecided about the result. There is, however, scope for tries in this game and the price for Over 3.5 is 2.12. Again, I will be going against the recommendations of the Racing Post and
I will take this price if I win in the Chelsea game.
Saturdays can be very busy and it's easy to do too many bets at a time. I'm optimistic about winning today and am looking forward to Stoke v Arsenal later. More later.