Day 19 Conclusion

I felt the need to cut loose today and increase my stakes. I felt happy that if I backed Over 2.5 goals in each of the UK televised games that I would not lose.
The first three games kicked off at the same time. I had expected Liverpool to fail to win and it was frustrating to see my Over 2.5 money go down the drain.

Sporting Lisbon lost a man early in the game and it seemed certain that Atletico Madrid would score goals. They managed to screw up for me. Fortunately Hamburg went to plan.

My original bet was to do Overs in the Juventus game and had done it earlier today. In view of my overall loss in the earlier games I decided I would double my stake on it. Two early goals were scored and I greened. I could have made another £32 if I had stayed in because Fulham scored the third. Nevertheless, having risked £ 200 and to find myself in profit. albeit small, it would have been daft to stay in and risk over £140 to win an extra £32.

A little reckless today but this is because I am running out of time now. I only have two weekends football and Cheltenham races before this blog closes so I must press on.

I have set my own personal target for my bank at the end and am either going to achieve it or blow it. I'll still try to be sensible. I have attached a profit and loss account and the last part of my statement.

Day 19 Inquest and Plan.

Yesterday was a reasonably sensible day. I did Over 2.5 goals in both Champions League games and greened immediately after the first goal was scored in each. I intended re-entering the markets at half time. In view of the urgent need of the Real Madrid team, I entered Overs in that game. Wrong choice. I allowed myself a period for goals to be scored by allowing my profit to dwindle to almost zero and then greened. My frivolous correct score failed to pay off this time. So, a small profit on the day.

Two games tonight are Lille v Liverpool, Juventus v Fulham. I can easily see Liverpool losing this one but the odds are much too high to consider laying them. I think that they will probably lose 2 - 0 ( 18 ).

I have already backed Over 2.5 goals in the Juventus game. Fulham have done very well since Christmas but I think that they will be outclassed. I am considering bookings odds in this game too ( 1.78 ) for 9 points and over.

Day 18 Inquest and Plan

Yesterday was very easy. Loads of goals in both Champions League ties and couldn't fail to make money. I did Over 2.5 goals in both games and traded out far too early in the Fiorentina game, but wasn't watching it and recovered my stake when I had the chance. I greened in the Arsenal game at 2 - 0 and the game "died" a little. Then, before half time Arsenal became very dominant and I thought that they would go on to score more goals. Instead of re-entering the Over 2.5 market or the Over 3.5 market, I decided that it was likely that Arsenal would score two more goals in the second half so I entered the correct score market and backed "Any Unquoted" price as this was good value. I recovered the "winnings" I had lost by greening the Over 2,5 market too soon and made me feel a little bit chuffed because, even if I say it myself, It was a clever thing to do.

No horses today as I have discovered, if I get out of my chair, that there is a place called "outside" and I have been walking Benny and Snowy there in lovely sunshine.

The Over 2.5 market in the Real Madrid Market is at a low price at 1.6. I have already put £40 on it and am very tempted to double this. Real Madrid have to score two goals to win the tie in 90 minutes. A goal by Lyons would, I think, make three or more goals a certainty.

I still don't think that Man Utd are anywhere near being a top team. Having seen AC Milan play many times this year, I am far from convinced that United will get through this tie. I had considered laying Man Utd but 1.78 is way too high. The Over 2.5 market is not generous at 1.88.

If I am right, and Utd fail to progress, it will be because Milan have won by two clear goals, 0 - 2 being the most likely score if they should achieve this. Current odds are 34. I've stuck £4 on it for an interest and if Milan score first, I'll win a couple of quid. Done this trick twice in the last couple of weeks, and it's a fun thing to do.

If I don't convince myself to put £40 on Over 2.5 in the Man Utd game, I might double up on the Real Madrid game.

Day 17 Inquest and Plan

Last night's Liverpool game was amusing. I thought that Wigan would not make life easy for them and did a small bet, Wigan to win 3 - 0. Greened after the first goal, very pleasant. I also backed Over 2.5 goals. I was able to recover 25% of my stake at 82 minutes and this is most unusual. It seems that the whole world was hanging on for Liverpool to score goals. I hate Liverpool and am quite happy to lose about £25 when they lose.

Since yesterday I have amused myself by trading greyhounds and horses. Very small pickings to be had from dogs , I'm afraid. Today, I traded horses for the first time in ages and did OK considering all the interruptions I had to put up with. This form of trading should be a solitary activity as it is very easy to lose large amounts of money very quickly if one is disturbed and loses concentration.

I attach a statement up to the end of the Liverpool game last night and a trading profit/loss account for today's latest bets.

Tonight I have had a smallish punt on Over 2.5 in the Fiorentina v Bayern Munich game. Both European ties tonight are complicated by virtue of away goals having been scored in the first legs. So, I'll decide nearer kickoff if I am going to back again.

Day 16 - Inquest and Plan

I cut loose yesterday and did the over 2.5 goal markets in many games, only one of which actually had more than 2.5 goals. That game was the Everton v Hull game. It wasn't on TV and as soon as the second goal was scored I greened. Final score was something like 5 - 1 but I couldn't see it for myself and was right to trade out when I did.

Remarkably, I ended up making only a tiny loss on the day, this despite having a frivolous punt of over £15 at big odds in the Zaragoza game correct score of 0 - 3. I had hoped that Forlan, or somebody, would have scored to give Atletico the lead and, then would have greened with a profit in the order of £50.

Although I didn't make any money yesterday, I regard it as being the best day's trading I have done since I started this blog. I had no luck in the sense of having great numbers of goals scored but managed to stake a lot of money and reduce potential losses. So, effectively, bets for hardly any cost. The API was still very erratic and I had to have many attempts at closing trades on occasion which cost me some money too.

I find myself still in profit overall, albeit tiny, but I have regained my confidence. If I can make a small profit on a bad day, I am going to do bloody well on a good day !

The plan for today is simple. Back Overs at a very generous price in the Wigan v Liverpool game. I am certain that Wigan will score. The two styles of play should lead to an open game.

Trading horses has been very dangerous with the current state of the API. This did not prevent the Geek from having an amazingly rewarding day's trading on Saturday. It's nice to know that he is capable of writing software, and trade successfully without the need for bullshit and lies like so many others.

I am tempted to trade the horses myself now but will wait until Cheltenham.

Day 15 - Inquest and Plan

I backed Over 2.5 goals in the Arsenal V Burnley game yesterday. Goalless at halftime, I layed Under 1.5 goals and was able to escape from the game with an overall profit of around £5. These bets are not shown on published statement.

I punted £4 on Air Force One. He fell.

I ignored my own advice regarding the Man Utd game and did Over 2.5 goals. This was a real mess. Likewise, similar tactics in the Fulham game resulted in a loss there. With a complete lack of discipline I stuck £40 on the Roma V Milan game, despite many chances, no goals.

Thee games with only one goal was always going to lose a lot of money. It was made even worse as the API was erratic and I couldn't trade out when I wanted to.

I resisted the temptation to place large bets on the Real Madrid and Barcelona games in an attempt to recover my losses and finished the day still in profit overall, since the blog was started, but with a much depleted bank.

Today I will maintain my £40 stakes and have done Overs in the Aston Villa game. More as the day progresses.

Day 14 - Plan

The friendly soccer internationals have made a mess of this week. Fortunately, we have now returned to some sort of normality.The only danger I face today is having far too many events to trade on. It could be great day or a disastrous one. My blog is now approaching the halfway stage and I need to be more adventurous.

I see no reason why there should not be three goals in the Portsmouth v Birmingham game and I have backed just over £40 at 2.54.

I don't think that Man Utd are anywhere near being a great team and, if Rooney is unfit today, they could easily struggle at Wolves and, if they did, there might possibly be few goals.

Fulham v Tottenham is possibilty for Over 2.5 later today. Spanish and Italian televised football also looks appealing.

I played around with a couple of races yesterday to be able to experience the current conditions which are making pre-race trading a somewhat precarious activity. An updated statement is provided but this doesn't show my initial bet on Over 2.5 in the Portsmouth game.